Author Archives: Jon Garvey

Jon Garvey

About Jon Garvey

Training in medicine (which was my career), social psychology and theology. Interests in most things, but especially the science-faith interface. The rest of my time, though, is spent writing, playing and recording music.

Whole-cost denialism – wilful blindness or myth?

An historical perspective Fifty years on from that obscure episode in history between 2020 and 2023, now generally known as “The Covidiocy,” it is perhaps now time to reflect on one of its darker aspects. The whole period was one of darkness, of course, largely forgotten now only because of the greater darkness to which it led, culminating in the implosion of the World Equity Government after the sack of Beijing

Posted in History, Medicine, Politics and sociology, Science | 3 Comments

Lockdown – a nationwide prospective study (update 2)

I think the data collection is complete enough now to be confident of the trend in COVID-19 positive tests since UK Lockdown #3 began on 5th of January. Here is today’s chart:

Posted in Medicine, Politics and sociology, Science | 2 Comments

How Christ released Prometheus (but not like Adam did)

I’m reading a recent book by Carl Trueman, recommended by a Cambridge contemporary who read my e-book, Seeing Through Smoke (and generally liked it). It’s entitled The Rise and Triumph of the Modern Self. Trueman is a Christian historian who seeks to explain the origin of our contemporary moral confusion. To capture his theme, how did a sentence like “I am a woman trapped in a man’s body” come to make sense?

Posted in History, Philosophy, Politics and sociology, Prometheus, Theology | 1 Comment

Why lockdown even matters

So today’s ONS data look even more confirmatory of a sharp improvement in national positive COVID tests beginning on January 1st. Assuming it takes 6-8 days for sudden changes in infections to show up in test patterns, it can’t be due to a lockdown starting on Jan 5th, and is very late for Tier 4 beginning on 19th December. In fact, the most obvious event in chronological terms is everyone getting together at Christmas, which is unlikely to be credited for the downturn by SAG! Most likely, as ever, it is the natural course of this particular combination of local surgesthat is the real explanation. But why does it even … Continue reading

Posted in Medicine, Politics and sociology, Science | Leave a comment

Lockdown – a nationwide prospective study (update 1)

It’s hard to be sure as yet, but there now seems a definite downturn in the latest overall ONS “cases” data, for 4th January. The problem is that if it’s real, it begins on 1st January, 4 days before lockdown. Therefore if it continues, without a clear change in slope, lockdown is both ineffective and unnecessary. I’ll keep updating. Here’s the chart:

Posted in Medicine, Politics and sociology, Science | 2 Comments

Commercial motives for prolonging COVID

SARS-CoV-2 is a rather magical virus, and COVID policy displays an unprecedented degree of magical thinking. For example, unlike every other epidemic in history experts somehow knew from the start that nobody would be immune. Furthermore, no immunity would ever develop, so that we were told back in the spring that we would be required to adjust to a new normal, helpfully already prepared for us by bodies like the UN and WEF.

Posted in Medicine, Politics and sociology, Science | Leave a comment

A prophetic word (maybe) from 2019

One small effect of the events of 2020 has been to discredit the whole Charismatic prophetic movement, especially in the USA. The self-styled prophets foretold wonderful things for the year, entirely missing the slightly important COVID-19 outbreak, and then decreed with their pretended apostolic authority to cast it out, to absolutely no effect. Then they predicted a massive election win for Donald Trump, which whatever the election shenanigans were is now clearly false prophecy. They are blind guides – shun them.

Posted in Theology | Leave a comment

Interesting stuff from ONS test stats

We all know that the overall ONS testing stats, so useful for scaring the public, are pretty useless for knowing what’s going on. Apart from the questionable nature of the (predominantly PCR) tests themselves, which may be hiding a casedemic, they are subject to a varying number of tests being done (so at least half of the present increase in cases is due to the increasing number of tests), to testing being concentrated on hot-spots rather than a consistent sample population, and increasingly to their consisting of an unspecified mix of PCR, LFT and antibody tests.

Posted in Medicine, Politics and sociology, Science | 2 Comments

The official case for a UK casedemic

Pathologist Claire Craig (whose excellent work I’ve mentioned before) has collated a remarkable page of official UK statistics for the whole of 2020, now that Public Health England has released the end-of-year data. Actually it’s game-changing, but let’s avoid hyperbole. Essentially, the PHE data gives official information on the clinical reason for every hospital admission this year, plus every other health contact that didn’t lead to admissions. Let me elaborate.

Posted in Medicine, Politics and sociology, Science, Theology | 1 Comment

Post-COVID expectations

One of the strangest things about the unfolding disaster of 2020 is the way in which so many, and especially Christians, seem to have acquired strongly rose-tinted spectacles regarding its final outcome.

Posted in Politics and sociology, Theology | Leave a comment