The official case for a UK casedemic

Pathologist Claire Craig (whose excellent work I’ve mentioned before) has collated a remarkable page of official UK statistics for the whole of 2020, now that Public Health England has released the end-of-year data. Actually it’s game-changing, but let’s avoid hyperbole. Essentially, the PHE data gives official information on the clinical reason for every hospital admission this year, plus every other health contact that didn’t lead to admissions. Let me elaborate.

For all its faults (and inadequate security for patient data is one of them!) our centralised NHS enables enormously powerful statistics to be gathered. Whether intelligent use is made of them, of course, is an entirely different matter. Claire’s page gathers the data for all presenting complaints conceivably related to COVID, from the following sources:

NHS 111. This is the universal first-call health advice number, and one of the the non-medical call handlers’ first jobs is to fit the reason for the call to specific symptomatic categories like “cough,” “breathlessness” or even “possible COVID.”.

Ambulance triage. If you dial 999 for an ambulance, once more one of the first jobs they have is to categorize your complaint.

Accident and Emergency. Likewise, patients who turn up in A&E departments of hospitals will be coded on arrival, whether they are eventually admitted or sent home.

GP surgery. See your doctor, and the computer notes have to be entered under a condition-code called a “Read Code.” All this information ends up on the central NHS database (ideally anonymized but probably not, more’s the pity – Matt Hancock decided to sell it to commercial companies earlier in the year to break the “culture of secrecy” surrounding your personal medical details. You have nothing to hide, though, have you?).

GP Out of Hours. GP co-operatives and equivalent commercial providers use similar computer systems, so once more a diagnostic code is registed centrally for every interaction.

Excess Deaths. This is the final port of call: one way or another, if you die your demise will be recorded and included in the national stats. This is the best year-by-year indicator of epidemics of new strains of virus, and how severe they are.

These statistics (excess death excepted) cover every case and every possible route into a British hospital, and hence every possible presentation of COVID-19 will end up in one or other of the datasets. They also cover every single case in which someone suspected of COVID by the NHS on the basis of symptoms would enter the system.

The remarkable thing is that every single one of these measures – every single one – clearly shows the effect of the spring epidemic of COVID, but thereafter shows not only zero sign of any major resurgence, even at year’s end, but in every case levels of relevant symptoms which are far below the average of previous years. You can spot non-COVID phenomena, such as childhood asthma admissions in the summer from allergy and into the winter from infection, but nothing that looks at all like the disease pattern that emerged last February. It is as if COVID no longer even exists, barring one or two possible indicators of minor incidences, but has somehow also cleansed the country of other respiratory conditions.

Get this though your head – no scientist analysing the NHS data in years to come will find any obvious trace of COVID after the epidemic of Spring 2020. They will conclude instead it was an unusually benign year, that apart.

The sole outlier, as Claire points out, is the dire situation portrayed by PCR testing, which has shut down our nation for a third time. To put it very crudely (and please check the charts yourself) the whole NHS database shows that hardly anybody is sick, but the PCR testing programme says that nearly everybody is suffering from COVID, and they are dying of it an an increasing rate. Clearly, this does not compute. So what is the reason for this monumental anomaly?

It is hard to conceive of any other explanation for this state of affairs but a testing pseudo-epidemic, a “casedemic” situation such as that which occurred over Avian Flu in 2009, which I wrote about in September. I know of nothing else that can indicate a critical health crisis where none exists. But this casedemic is on a far more massive scale than 2009’s, and is accompanied by such hysteria on the part of everyone from SAGE to the BBC that denying the pandemic narrative will probably lose you your job and your friends (local politician is recently expelled from the Conservative Party in the Midlands for denying the narrative, and my normally compassionate brother says “Hooray!” – better avoid the subject in the family, Jon, because presenting data is a sure sign of an evil heart).

I’ll bypass the important question of whether this situation could even conceivably be accidental, the whole scientific Establishment having unprofessionaly forgotten about the 2009 casedemic, or whether it is deliberate, because it can be continued indefinitely and generate huge profits from unnecessary twice-yearly vaccination of the entire world population until there’s no economy left to finance Big Pharma (but decimating the population, to the delight of populationists like Bill Gates, sitting pretty in his vaccine profits).

Instead, I’ll concentrate on asking, scientifically, where all the sick people are, both those absent from the “syndromic data” Claire Craig collates, and those filling the hospitals and mortuaries in the daily news. For an anomaly clearly does exist in the data, because the excess deaths, whilst pretty much within the envelope of normality, are far higher than the PHE data would indicate for COVID or anything like it. At this point I have to speculate based on what I know, lacking the information on individual cases that would settle it, but would lose medical informants their jobs if it contradicted the official narrative.

Where are the usual diseases?

I would suggest that much of the apparent lack of illness in the stats is because people have been persuaded not to bother the NHS with minor issues in order to to “save” it. And it has worked – a result of behavioural conditioning by the state and media far beyond what years of pleading from doctors to self-manage minor ailments ever managed to achieve. Even people who suspect they have COVID have been told to self-isolate and manage at home unless things get worse. We all know now that even presentations of serious diseases like heart disease and cancer have dropped either through fear of burdening the NHS or fear of catching the plague in hospital, so such under-presentation of common respiratory conditions is entirely plausible.

Where are all the COVID sufferers?

This is the more urgent question, because they have closed down the country, when all the NHS data apart from PCR testing suggests the patients don’t even exist. Yet somehow they are flooding hospitals and even dying in increasing numbers (except that the numbers are decreasing now in many areas such as London and the Southeast, and my own part of Devon). An item I heard on today’s BBC news headlines might give a clue.

The aim of this news item was the to stoke the usual fear-mongering: a distressed man says he called out to his (obviously not elderly or sick) brother in the night because he heard he was awake, heard his reply that all was fine, and found him dead in bed in the morning. Presumably a COVID test either previously or post-mortem revealed COVID as the cause.

Only that is nonsensical: there are very few medical causes of unexpected sudden death, and virus infections are not one of them. The distinctive SARS of COVID-19 develops progressively over weeks, not overnight. Conceivably the virus might cause some sudden hyper-immune cardiopathies, but this would be as rare as those apparently being caused by the vaccine in Portugal or Israel, and would require an autopsy to demonstrate. We heard nothing about that, possibly because autopsies are not done in COVID for fear of spreading infection – the COVID-industrial complex has most of the diagnostic exits covered!

Accordingly, we need to remember that, on WHO’s corrupt criteria, all these COVID illnesses and deaths are real by definition, for there are uniquely no diagnostic criteria of symptoms, signs or pathology for COVID, definitive diagnosis being made by one positive PCR test, done by any lab, certified or not, or taken by untrained staff under undefined criteria of cycle-threshold. But such diagnoses are not real on any meaningful understanding of disease.

Yet the definitional trap continues throughout the system in the UK as elsewhere , probably because they all take their cue from the WHO – but don’t ask me why they totally ignore its advice on avoiding lockdowns, repeating all tests, and not staggering vaccine second doses.

A “COVID case” is anyone, sick, well or dead, who (in UK) gets a positive test after 45 amplification cycles. The best research suggests that no live virus exists beyond 32 cycles, and no infectivity beyond 26-28 cycles, but there is no requirement in Britain even to state the level at which diagnosis was made.

A “COVID admission” is anyone who had a positive test 14 days before, or during admission for any cause whatsoever. Since testing, it appears, is focused on wherever outbreaks are thought to be occurring, patients in busy hospitals are tested to destruction. Positive test two days after a hip replacement = COVID admission.

A “COVID ICU admission” is, once more, based solely on a positive PCR. So the terminal cardiac failure patient or the post-emergency-bypass patient with a false positive is, by definition, helping to fill ICU beds with COVID patients. Incidentally ICU and hospital occupancy is actually in line with previous years, despite a 10,000 bed reduction in capacity since last winter.

A “COVID death” is anyone dying within 28 of a positive PCR. Lockdown deaths at home from suicides, cardiac arrests, cancer and so on, which we know to be increasing, only need a false positive PCR to become part of the pandemic’s mortality.

Interestingly, the published ONS death certificate data, which broadly match the other COVID deaths, is not detailed enough to make any useful judgements on true causation, given that your (false-positive) COVID test has to be included somewhere on the certificate, by 2020 regulation. UK death certificates are much like those in the USA, I believe. We get three levels of “cause,” (for example, “(1a) respiratory arrest caused by (1b) pulmonary oedema caused by (1c) congestive cardiac failure),” and then a space for associated factors “contributing to death” but not causing it (for example, “diabetes”). This last space is where doctors are required to insert the positive PCR as “COVID-19 infection,” whether thought relevant or not. You can see that, unless we know where COVID occurs on the certificate, it’s as likely to be a casedemic false positive as anything of clinical significance.

And so, although the data does not give sufficient information to do other than speculate, relatively low seasonal respiratory problems, combined with increased rates of non-COVID conditions due to the adverse effects of lockdown, mask-wearing and so on, but all branded as “COVID” due to an ongoing casedemic and the vagaries of classification regulations, would fully account both for the PHE data and the COVID stats.

But if my explanation is correct, although none of the stats are being fiddled, the ruling narrative is entirely false, and all of us are living in a false reality of fear, isolation and economic meltdown entirely unnecessarily. Sorry – the sacrifices have all been in vain – only Christ is reliable.

And if you think my analysis is wrong, then here’s a simple exercise for you: accepting that the offical narrative on COVID-19 is correct, you simply have to account for the year’s official syndromic data brought together by Dr Craig. Let me know what you conclude.

A friend knows a GP in Scotland who says that 50% of his practice is now due to mental health issues. That is the direct result of denying social beings their God-given needs. There are those with scientific and medical training who know about the lie being foisted on us, but still foist it for all they are worth. They have much blood on their hands, and the Lord will not spare them on “that day.” Which may come sooner than many of us think.

About Jon Garvey

Training in medicine (which was my career), social psychology and theology. Interests in most things, but especially the science-faith interface. The rest of my time, though, is spent writing, playing and recording music.
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1 Response to The official case for a UK casedemic

  1. Jon Garvey says:

    New All-cause mortality data just out. Summary:

    In week 532020,no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by weekof death wasobservedoverallin England through the EuroMOMO algorithm. In the devolved administrations,no statistically significant excess all-cause mortalityfor all ageswas observedfor Walesor Northern Irelandin week 53.Statistically significant excess mortality was observed in Scotland for week 50. This data should be interpreted with caution due to delays in reporting over the Christmas period.

    Since the previous week the data had just tipped into the “excess” range, we’re certainly not seeing anything unusual, even if there are figures to be added.

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