Lies, damned lies and … not even statistics

Did anybody else find the photo-ops of Biden and Boris at the G7 conference yesterday tragi-comic? That is, tragi-comic in the sense of robbing one of the will to live? Biden has been vaccinated, and Boris has had COVID seriously, and had the vaccination. And yet there they were signalling to the world that none of that is of any use by wearing ineffective cloth masks six feet apart. They are liars. But oddly, the charade is, domestically speaking, intended to promote the very vaccinations the pictures suggest are useless. Only a population nudged to oblivion could miss the irrationality on display.

It seems that the lies are , if anything, getting more desperate. We are currently being psycho-prepped to see “Freedom Day” on June 21st as needing to be postponed (“just 4 weeks to flatten the curve…” again), because of the Indian variant, which still has a little propaganda mileage left in it, despite a slow puncture. Failing that, they will roll out the Nepalese variant, blamed on returning conquerors of Everest, who were able to reach the thin air of the world’s highest summit despite suffering from the world’s worse respiratory virus ever.

The announcement that “cases” are rising is an old trick, of course. In response to sightings of Indian viruses coming ashore in dinghies, surge testing of all and sundry occurs in those areas. We have no way from the incomplete stats of knowing how much that biased sampling skews the results, but it remains true that the more people you test where a viral infection has been recently, the more positive tests you will find. Again, the incomplete ONS data gives us no way of knowing how many, if any, of these positive “cases” are actually ill, though since the younger age bracket is mainly affected it is implausible that many of them are symptomatic at all.

This ploy is old news. Somehow, none of the communicators are admitting that if asymptomatic COVID were indeed spreading amongst the young, that would be an excellent thing, for it would increase the levels of permanent natural immunity needed to reach the necessary end-point of herd immunity and curtail the pandemic. In fact, with 80% of the UK population now having antibodies, it is hard to believe that herd immunity has not already been reached – 70% was the pessimistic figure given us by SAGE last year.

Such natural T-cell immunity, being immunity to the whole virus, will protect from any conceivable new SARS-CoV-2 variant, since at least one study shows that people who had SARS-1 retain immunity not only to that, only 80% similar to SARS-2, but to the latter as well. Even the most variant of SARS-2 variants is only 0.3% dissimilar to the original virus.

It is only the unnatural immunity from vaccines targeting the spike protein alone that is potentially vulnerable to minor variants – which fact should, like the risk of lethal blood-clots, have been predicted in advance, as I pointed out here.

The threadbare case for increased cases is still being made as convincing as possible by the same old misleading press trick of using the “date reported” data after a Bank Holiday weekend. The benign explanation for this misinformation is that scaremongering still sells newspapers, but more likely, sad to say, the script has been managed by those pulling their strings, and maybe wearing masks for the cameras in Cornwall, who have been using unjustified fear to maintain compliance from the start.

Whichever it is, they seem to realise that the case-numbers script is becoming hackneyed and unconvincing, and so they are also touting “40% rise in hospital admissions.” I can’t find that in the ONS figures at all. Leave aside for the moment the longstanding counting errors in this stat, which mean that going into a learning disabilities unit, in otherwise good health, and testing positive will earn you a place in the “COVID admissions” figures, as will testing positive after a day-case routine endoscopy or after an admission to a psychiatric hospital for acute psychosis.

Forget that, I say, and simply look for a genuine trend in the ONS statistics.

The increase, it turns out from the Daily Mail’s graph, comes from comparing the last available admissions figure, 153 on 6th June, with the previous day’s number of 123. That’s only 23% rather than 40%, so the latter percentage comes from who know where. But one data point and an origin no more signify a trend than one swallow does a summer.

In fact, that June 6 number was exceeded, by 1, back on 1st June, after which admissions dropped to the same levels we’ve been getting for 6 weeks. To all rational appearances, COVID admissions are flatlining within a normal variability, whereas the seven day average for cases has been rising, a little, for a whole month. If a genuine spike in classical COVID admissions were due, it would have been seen 3 weeks ago. It goes without saying (knowing what tosh the other stats are) that deaths remain at their lowest in 18 months, if any are even due to COVID at all. Certainly UK mortality overall remains, as it has done for most of this year, at a record low.

So you can see that the whole threat to the promised repeal of restrictions is smoke and mirrors – though no less effective as propaganda for all that. Since nothing significant is actually happening, SAGE has reverted to its oldest trick, the exaggerated future projection. Although even SAGE’s best-case predictions have been consistently too pessimistic since the pandemic began, there undoubtedly will be a third wave if we don’t cancel whatever it is they were intending to relax on June 21st, though what that relaxation was to entail we have never been told. It was certainly not planned to get back to normal, since the government has quietly extended its emergency powers till next spring.

The real intention is clearly only to scare or blackmail more people to be vaccinated. If there really were a third wave, even our present recently-restored freedoms, according to their thinking, would be the cause of its worsening, and we ought to be locking down altogether to be consistent. Consistent policy, though, is not what it’s about.

So we are to vaccinate the young adults, the pregnant women, the healthy teenagers of whom only 8 have died throughout the pandemic, and the under-twelves of whom none have died at all. It’s virtually certain that some will die from vaccine-induced clotting or myocarditis, not to mention the risks of infertility and spontaneous abortion. If they survive, though, they will be able to rejoice in the same freedoms as Boris Johnson and Joe Biden, and stay six feet apart from each other whilst wearing a mask.

Unlike Johnson and Biden, though, they won’t be allowed to fly around the world without a vaccine passport and quarantine. Rank does offer a few perks, after all.

About Jon Garvey

Training in medicine (which was my career), social psychology and theology. Interests in most things, but especially the science-faith interface. The rest of my time, though, is spent writing, playing and recording music.
This entry was posted in Medicine, Politics and sociology, Science. Bookmark the permalink.

7 Responses to Lies, damned lies and … not even statistics

  1. Peter Hickman says:

    Jon,

    Thanks once more for your regular posts on Covid issues. As I have said before, the fact that I don’t often comment reflects that, in the main, there is little useful I feel I might add.

    The question of vaccinating the young has exercised me considerably recently, largely because my own progeny have all been offered a vaccine (without a concomitant choice of which one), and they have been asking me what I think about it.
    They are all adults and entitled to make their own choices, for better or worse.

    Like you, I think that young people without relevant morbidity should eschew the vaccines. If they haven’t already acquired immunity the best way to achieve it is by means of the virus itself.

    In my local church we pray for HMG, and I try to limit my spoken criticism of it as much as possible. Church leaders in the area have even advised believers *not* to openly criticize the government ‘who are doing their best’. Nevertheless, we are not to taken as fools, and there is a time to speak out as well as a time to refrain from speaking.

    I regret to have to say that, having initially given it the benefit of the doubt, I have long been persuaded that HMG is not simply mistaken, but thoroughly dishonest. Yes, it repeatedly lies.
    Among the many other inconvenient facts that it tries to keep to itself, it knows full well that the young are not at risk from the virus, and that they may well be at greater risk from the vaccines.

    • Jon Garvey says:

      Yes – at some point the Divine Right of Kings to Rule becomes oppression… or, “Mr Stalin is doing his best” wears a bit thin.

      • Jon Garvey says:

        Well, Boris speaking at the G7 buys totally into the Great Reset – maybe that explains a lot according to one’s worst suspicions about the motivations for lockdowns:

        “Mr Johnson told them they need to ‘build back better’. ‘Building back greener and building back fairer and building back more equal and, how shall I, in a more gender neutral and, perhaps a more feminine way.’ ”

        One way of building back fairer amd more equal would have been to enable working people to work, so that the only profits in the last year would not have been those been added to the coffers of the Oligarchs who attend WEF conferences.

        “Build back better…” They really are lizards running he same program, aren’t they?

  2. Jon Garvey says:

    Apparently a YouGov poll shows that 53% support a 4 week delay in lifting lockdown restrictions, and 25% want all restrictions to remain. If lockdowns actually worked, and the threat appeared plausible I’d be with the 25%.

    The questions would be interesting to see, as the findings suggest that a majority actually believes that a 4 week delay will actually mean that, despite the last 15 months spent flattening a 3 week curve.

    In this case it’s to get some ill-defined new part of the population vaccinated, which means ignoring reports like this drawing attention to the accumulating evidence of serious side effects. I guess the 53% don’t get to see them.

  3. Elizabeth B. says:

    Jon,

    Haven’t posted here in ages. And to echo the previous poster, it’s not that I don’t agree or support what you write. It just seems that there is nothing to add.

    If lockdowns worked, the UK would have wiped out Covid-19 by now. Sigh.

    This is more a note of thanks and support for what you are continuing to do.

    I wish information regarding young women and the covid vaccine effects would be more forthcoming. It takes much digging, and even then it is a very incomplete picture. I know of someone who had finished the vaccine 5 weeks before miscarrying her 5 or 6 month pregnancy. But, that is just a mere anecdote and may be completely irrelevant of the vaccine. Is anyone tracking this information. I see our US CDC has a form to report adverse reactions, but that depends upon people seeking out the form. Is there a default mechanism where all doctors or midwives have to report miscarriages or infertility following vaccines?

    Anyway, cheers!
    Elizabeth

    • Jon Garvey says:

      Hi Elizabeth

      I’m in the UK, of course, but the scheme for reporting possible drug/vaccine adverse reactions (the Yellow Card Scheme) is, I think pretty similar to your VAERS, except that ours allows anyone, not just doctors, to report side effects, which I believe not to be so with yours (though I may be wrong there). I didn’t even know that when I was working! The idea is that if such a national agency begins to get multiple reports of a problem, investigations or licence withdrawals can be put in motion.

      At the best of times, the incentive to report problems is low, and though I was probably as good as most GPs at shooting off Yellow Cards, the temptation is to shrug off all but the most blatant and rapid-onset problems, until you start reading about issues in the medical press and focus your attention.

      So it was that it took over a year to begin joining the dots on narcolepsy due to the Pandemrix vaccine back in 2009-10. This was serious enough to get the vaccine withdrawn, but rare enough to be both hard to detect, and easily deniable (“GSK say there is no evidence to link narcolepsy with the vaccine…”). Of course, it might take years to establish a mechanism to explain a rare side effect, so most drugs get banned because anecdotal evidence builds up to a flood and drug companies eventually get rumbled by brave investigators for hiding evidence (examples: Vioxx, Opren, Tamiflu).

      Currently, though, COVID vaccination is a kind of worldwide monomania, and the propaganda that the vaccines are SAFE (whatever that means) and that all who deny it are anti-science anti-vaxxers, is fed to professionals. The known and predicted problems from mRNA vaccines are not publicised to them or the public, being instead positively censored.

      I met up with a former medical colleague, also retired, who’s been vaccinating in a voluntary role. He had no idea of the cytokine storm phenomenon, of the toxicity of spike protein, of the spread of vaccine throughout the body from injection site, of the phase 3 trial status of the vaccines, or even (I think) of the radical difference between mRNA vaccines and previous vaccines. Etc. Government and professionals alike parrot “the benefits outweigh the risks” but go silent when asked to quantify either.

      Consequently medical reporting, even of suspicious deaths, is far lower than actuality. “What possible link could a miscarriage have with an anti-viral shot in the arm?” The first answer is, “A link is always possible.” In this case, we know that spike protein is concentrated in reproductive organs, and also that it had similarities to an essential placental protein.

      When the “Hooray for our ability to make a vaccine in such a short time!” rhetoric is so strong, the suspicion is that even the people collating the VAERS/Yellow Card data might be complacent. In the UK, it’s the MHRA – the very agency that gave emergency authorisation for the vaccine use, and have extended it to the pregnant, children, etc. If the vaccine turned out to cause massive problems in the entire population, then they definitely have a dog in the fight.

      An open letter from a professional lobbying/research group here says there is already more than sufficient Yellow Card data to get the vaccines withdrawn… but the pressure is on everyone to give it to more and more people to “beat the Indian variant” that has “forced” them to keep us locked down beyond our promised release date.

      So if you were at the MHRA, imagine the pressure of being the people to pour cold water on the entire COVID strategy and condemn the nation to permanent lockdown! And be blamed for authorising the stuff in the first place!

Leave a Reply