The causes of our excess deaths

…More on mRNA snake oil

As a follow up to yesterday’s post, there’s an excellent presentation here by statistical mathematician Martin Neill, which actually follows up one by Norman Fenton.

The latter deals with the flawed definitions, data and modelling of COVID that bedevil any attempt at analysis of the events of the last three years. But I will concentrate on the Neill presentation, which (despite the data limitations) analyses possible causes of the troubling 2022 excess death phenomenon across the world. Neil stresses that this is a relatively crude exploratory study, in need of refinement. But the results are clear enough.

To cut a long story short, there is zero correlation of excess deaths with long COVID, stringency of lockdowns (presumably correlating with ongoing conditions initiated then) or quality of healthcare services. These are the factors named in the press and most of the official responses, and they are just plain wrong (as the actuarial chart at the top of yesterday’s column also demonstrates dramatically).

In keeping with yesterday’s blog, though, there is a very strong correlation with rates of vaccination, making a prima facie case that the vaccines are not safe, by any manner of means. That is the most politically and medically significant finding, and the one that ought, in a well-run world, to produce many baskets of rolling heads amongst those who have marketed and mandated the things, and those in the media who have led the sheep astray.

Almost more interesting for me, though, is the fact that, in 2022, there is also a fairly strong statistical signal of a link between COVID cases and excess deaths. At first I ignored this, simply taking for granted that COVID still kills some people. But as Neil points out, the important thing it shows, when a big majority of the population sampled has been vaccinated, is that the vaccines are ineffective, as well as unsafe.

Bear in mind that the one remaining claim for the vaccines, decreased infections, transmission and hospitalisations all having been steadily debunked, is that they protect you against death. Clearly they don’t, if in the third year of SARS-CoV-2, with benign Omicron variants having displaced the Delta and Wuhan strains, COVID still produces excess deaths. And indeed the official US figures now show more vaccinated people dying of COVID than unvaccinated.

Let me unpack a little of the likely reasons for this, since they are entirely predictable from the nature of the bug, and the nature of the vaccines.

In itself, although criminally manufactured by humans, SARS-C0V-2 is just another coronavirus, producing a mild upper respiratory disease. Its USP was the spike protein, which if it broke through the respiratory membrane barrier could circulate to other organs and cause secondary inflammatory/clotting pathologies. This happened mainly in the lungs, and was the commonest cause of death in the early months of the outbreak, if you don’t count the deaths caused by poor treatment.

So in effect, COVID was always two diseases: one an initial upper respiratory tract infection only likely to harm those who were already very unhealthy, such as the extreme elderly; and the second a coagulation/immune problem affecting, still, primarily the vulnerable and elderly, but also able to damage the occasional healthy person.

But the advent of Omicron, either by act of God or by another lab-leak, changed all that, to the extent that some scientists question whether it should not be given a separate name. Although it provided immunity against the previous variants, rendering them extinct, it also almost entirely lost the ability to produce the secondary, highly dangerous, distant effects of the original types. In other words, Omicron produces just another flu-like illness, like 200 other viruses, which is why (to answer my three questions in the last post) there is no point in mass vaccination, even less point in testing, and no more point in self-isolation than with any other cold, unless you feel rotten, in which case you would stay home anyway.

Accordingly, the only people to be at significant risk from Omicron are those who would be at risk from any other upper respiratory virus, that is to say primarily the very elderly. So the excess death rate (primarily seen in the first quarter of this year) can be seen mainly as this year’s favoured winter virus carrying off those who failed to succumb to two seasons of COVID.

I would add that this, too, is somewhat anomalous, as the “dry tinder” effect might have been expected to have been reduced by the previous epidemic, thus lessening the likelihood of excess mortality over the 21-22 winter. The answer may, like so much else, be vaccine-related. It is now well demonstrated (even from the data released from the original Pfizer trials) that people are more susceptible to COVID in the first fortnight after vaccination, which is why it was always a stupid idea to mass-vaccinate the vulnerable in the midst of an epidemic. It’s my belief that this effect caused the deaths of 14 people in a care home not far from me, in the days after they were all vaccinated. And so as they rolled out the vaccines at the height of the winter season, giving them first to the most vulnerable, they may well have produced a seasonal excess that, sans vaccination, would not have occurred.

The other point to be taken from these stats is that the mRNA vaccines were always going to be ineffective against the 2022 pattern of disease. An intra-muscular Pfizer or Moderna shot may well, as is now well known, escape from the injection site via the bloodstream and cause all kinds of mayhem in other organs. But whether it does or not, it will produce as its immune effect only IgG circulating antibodies against the spike protein. The vaccines seem to generate minimal cell-mediated immunity, which is why their benefits disappear when IgG levels fall after around 17 weeks. And they produce no immunity at all at the respiratory membranes, which in natural infections become protected by the production of local IgA antibodies, not IgG.

What that means is that there never was any likelihood that the vaccines would prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2 of any type, nor that they would prevent transmission, since that always happens in the early days when viral shedding from the nose and throat is high, which is not prevented by circulating IgG.

So in theory, the most they could do is to knock out spike protein in the secondary, coagulation/inflammation, phase of infection, though they may well, instead, exacerbate any auto-immune process the spike protein has been causing. In that way, during the Delta outbreaks when vaccines were first used, they would indeed be likely to reduce hospitalisation and death, since these were mainly caused by the secondary phase targeted by vaccine-generated IgG. But even that short-lived protection is likely to have disappeared in practice with the extinction of the older strains, and that is what seems to be observed this year.

But as I have stated, the wonder of Omicron is that it has more or less rendered the secondary phase extinct. And if there is no coagulation/inflammation process happening, then lots of circulating IgG will do you no good at all. And having IgG won’t prevent you developing it, either, because the infecting agent is very unlikely to provoke it anyway. That means zero booster benefit.

So there is no benefit to be gained from vaccines against the latest variants, even in theory, because if the bug kills you it will be from effects not addressed by the vaccine – and you will probably be in an age-range where vaccines don’t trigger much of an antibody response anyway.

Moreover, having IgG, but no cell-mediated immunity, there is a greater risk that if you get a slug of SARS-CoV-2 viruses on your respiratory membranes, your vaccine antibodies will block the normal IgA response to a viral infection (“original antigenic sin”), and so you’ll catch COVID again and again – even, in fact, after your antibody levels wane, but even more so if you keep boosting them with new jabs. That’s unfortunate if the attacks are clinical and you feels rubbish, but it’s even sadder if you keep diagnosing sniffles as COVID by home-tests and spend half your life in quarantine. And we all know that is exactly what’s happening to our friends and relatives.

In a comment on yesterday’s blog, @shopwindows asks what might be done to sort this mess out. My answer is that I have no idea, but the Lord has been gracious in giving us bodies that tend towards mending themselves, even if we get into addictive patterns using alcohol, drugs or mRNA vaccines. So I suggest just stopping the boosters, keeping healthy and topped up with Vit D etc – and getting this information out to the friends who won’t listen to you, but may heed something in print by a doctor, so far uncancelled. We live by hope!

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About Jon Garvey

Training in medicine (which was my career), social psychology and theology. Interests in most things, but especially the science-faith interface. The rest of my time, though, is spent writing, playing and recording music.
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